This week’s visit to Russia to meet President Vladimir Putin by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is extraordinary, given the circumstances in both countries. The meeting was intended to strengthen bilateral strategic and tactical cooperation further, supporting solidarity in their struggle against the West.
It is the result of intensifying competition among nuclear armed powers. All of them are seeking to keep their friends and allies as close as possible, geopolitically. At this critical time, they have to do it quickly. Like a game of ping-pong, the reactions sail back and forth. A sluggish return could be seen as weakness.
The Biden administration has been pushing for and has succeeded in beefing up defence cooperation with their two key allies in East Asia—Japan and South Korea. The White House has honed its strategic brinksmanship on the Korean Peninsula by convincing these two allies to bury their differences to fight their common adversary, North Korea.
For the past two years, Biden has persuaded both Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol to normalise their usually tense relationship, otherwise it would be difficult to counter the threat from Pyongyang, which has steadily been becoming more assertive by the day, backed by its ambitious nuclear programs.
Biden succeeded by having both leaders go to Washington to meet him. From now on, the leaders of the three countries will meet annually to enhance strategic cooperation.
These two Asian powers are under American pressure to help the war effort in Ukraine by providing humanitarian and non-lethal aid. South Korea has pledged more military supplies for Ukraine. Likewise, Russia is now doing the same thing, but its options are more limited because it has few allies.
Truth be told, however, Pyongyang is the most important, as it has steadfastly supported Russia and, during their face to face meeting, the two leaders must have discussed their common views on the global situation and pledged to help each other.
Besides the reports of Russia’s assistance with satellite technology, speculation is rife that North Korea will ask for a specific transfer of nuclear technology, which could speed up development of its nuclear capabilities. These trends are bad news for ASEAN. The bloc wishes to see the region, meaning the whole Indo-Pacific, outside the theatre of the superpowers’ rivalry.
At the recent ASEAN summit in Jakarta, between the leaders of ASEAN and China-Japan-ROK, there were fruitful discussions on the global situation vis a vis the region. They agreed that, together with ASEAN, they could make a difference by guaranteeing peace and stability for the benefit of the region. Such an assurance further strengthens the so-called ASEAN plus three cooperation.
ASEAN has been steadfast in trying to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear program and pay more attention to development. The bloc has pledged to assist the country in all development areas. After joining the ASEAN Regional Forum in 2000 and signing the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in 2008, North Korea has relied on ASEAN as a regional stage on which to express its views and position. In 2017, North Korea urged ASEAN to help bring an end to economic sanctions.
It is imperative, as far as the region’s future is concerned, that North Korea be persuaded to attend the ASEAN-led fora more frequently. ASEAN can serve as a bridge between all conflicting parties to enable dialogue and avoid armed provocation and confrontation. If this adversarial trend continues, it will further destabilize the region, which could end up seeing intercontinental missiles being fired across the Pacific Ocean.
Kavi Chongkittavorn
