Thailand’s most popular political party is bracing for a verdict on Wednesday (August 7) that will determine its survival.
The Constitutional Court case stems from an Election Commission (EC) petition seeking the main opposition party’s dissolution for its push to amend Article 112 of the Criminal Code, aka the lese majeste law.
The EC accuses Move Forward of overthrowing or undermining the country’s democratic system with the King as head of state – an offence punishable by party disbandment and political bans for its executives.
The EC launched the petition after the Constitutional Court ruled in January that Move Forward’s campaign to change the royal insult law represented an attack on the monarchy. The court ordered the party to cease all attempts to abolish or amend the clause through “any illegitimate legal procedure”.
Move Forward has strongly rejected the allegations and argues the court has no jurisdiction to rule on the case. The party also asserts that the EC ignored due process by failing to allow it to defend itself before the petition was submitted.
Impacts of dissolution
Analysts are divided over whether Move Forward will be found guilty and dissolved, with its executives stripped of electoral rights for years to come.
Disbandment would result in numerous impacts, said Olarn Thinbangtieo, a lecturer at Burapha University’s Faculty of Political Science and Law.
Firstly, the 10 party executives who served from 2020 to 2023 would be stripped of their electoral rights for a period of time to be determined by the court.
They are then-party leader Pita Limjaroenrat, secretary-general Chaithawat Tulathon, treasurer Nateepat Kulsetthasith, membership registrar Nakornpong Supanimittrakul, and executive members Padipat Suntiphada, Somchai Fangchonchit, Amarat Chokepamitkul, Bencha Saengchantra, Apichart Sirisunthorn, and Suthep U-on.
Chaithawat is the current party leader while Pita is now his chief adviser. Padipat left the party last September in a move to retain his seat as deputy House speaker.
Olarn added that a guilty ruling would affect a separate case against the 44 Move Forward MPs who signed in support of proposed amendments to the lese majeste law. The National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) is considering whether to pursue legal action against those lawmakers for alleged ethical violations.
If found guilty, the MPs could be banned for life from politics, which would be a big loss for the party, the analyst said.
“Move Forward would find it difficult to manoeuvre. They would need more time to find new leaders to replace those who were banned,” he said.
In addition to finding a third tier of leaders after its predecessor Future Forward was dissolved in 2020, Move Forward’s disbanded membership would have to set up a new party or else take over an existing one, Olarn said.
A little-known party called Thinkakhao Chaovilai is reportedly the top contender as a new home for Move Forward MPs if their existing vehicle is dissolved by court order.
As per EC records, Thinkakhao Chaovilai was set up on August 7, 2012 with headquarters in Bangkok’s Thawi Watthana district. Last year’s general election saw the party contest just two constituencies, in Lop Buri province, while nominating 13 party-list candidates. However, it failed to win a seat in Parliament.
Move Forward’s deputy Sirikanya Tansakul, who is tipped to become the next party leader, said last Friday (August 2) that Thinkakhao Chaovilai was one of the “many parties” in talks with Move Forward as part of “preparations”.
Potential defectors undaunted
Olarn said the Constitution gives MPs from a dissolved party 60 days to move to a new party. He suggested key government coalition parties like Pheu Thai, Bhumjaithai, and United Thai Nation would lure several MPs from the opposition party if it is disbanded.
Responding to warnings that “traitorous” MPs would suffer the same re-election failure as many MPs who defected after the disbandment of Move Forward’s predecessor, the analyst said turncoats may prefer short-term benefits over their long-term political careers.
“Most of them are first-time MPs who were elected mainly due to the party’s popularity. They can’t be too sure that Move Forward’s successor will field them in the next election,” he said.
It would also be interesting to see if Move Forward’s reincarnation would retain the push to amend the lese majeste law and reform the monarchy, he added.
“If they go silent on this matter, they may lose votes from supporters who back this policy,” the analyst said.
Dissolution would also further weaken the chances of Move Forward-allied candidates in December’s local elections, Olarn commented.
The opposition party failed to make an impression at elections for provincial administrative organisation chiefs in Ayutthaya, Phayao and Chai Nat last Sunday (August 4). The winners came from local political dynasties representing the ruling coalition’s Pheu Thai, Bhumjaithai and United Thai Nation parties.
‘Not guilty verdict likely’
Olarn dismissed a majority opinion among experts and observers that Move Forward will be found guilty and dissolved on Wednesday, citing recent signs and developments in the party’s favour.
“If the court decides not to dissolve Move Forward, the political balance of power will remain unchanged. Pheu Thai is in control of the government while Bhumjaithai controls the Senate,” he said, referring to senior senators’ reported links with Bhumjaithai.
He also asserted that the EC’s case against Move Forward was flawed, citing the commission’s failure to allow the party to defend itself and insisting that the party had engaged in no actions that could be considered as overthrowing or undermining the constitutional monarchy.
He argued that a “not guilty” verdict would benefit the conservative elite at a time when Move Forward’s popularity is waning. He added that disbandment would likely trigger a massive wave of public sympathy for the party.
In his view, the conservative elite seems to have restored its control amid a loss of momentum for the reformist opposition party. Former prime minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha’s show of support for his successor, Srettha Thavisin, during the funeral of Srettha’s mother on Sunday pointed to a reconciliation between rival political elites, he said.
Forecasting a not-guilty verdict on Wednesday, the analyst remarked, “I believe the elites favour this outcome, as they already hold power.”
He also pointed out that such a ruling would help maintain the Thai judiciary’s reputation while easing growing pressure from the international community.
Foreign diplomats based in Bangkok met with Pita last week and reportedly discussed the case against Move Forward and the political situation in Thailand.
Meanwhile, Senator Ben Cardin, chair of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, voiced concern over the potential dissolution of the party. Additionally, the ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights cautioned that disbanding Move Forward could have serious implications for the 44 MPs currently under investigation by the NACC.
By Thai PBS World’s Political Desk
