The Pheu Thai Party is still widely tipped to win more seats than any other party, but signs are that their ambition of surpassing the 300-seat mark is unlikely to be achieved now. Even a 200-seat win is looking like a pipe dream at the moment.
The biggest political party may remain so after all the dust settles down, but a roundtable analysis on TV echoed the general feeling that it could be a major loser in the Thai general election.
Move Forward has obviously beaten expectations, standing to win more than 100 seats as of 9pm on Sunday. Bhumjaithai is also realistically hoping to exceed its 2019 achievements.
Palang Pracharath is winning fewer seats but, despite talk about its sharp decline, it can still celebrate the more than 30 seats it could potentially win.
The Ruam Thai Sang Chart is a new party, and winning more than 30 seats can be considered a fair start.
This leaves Pheu Thai among those who may moan the loudest. This is despite the fact that early counts (as of 9pm) had Pheu Thai winning some 140 seats. During the roundtable analysis on Thai PBS, the party’s unclear connection with Thaksin Shinawatra was mentioned as a possible reason why many voters chose Move Forward instead.
Thaksin’s vow to return to Thailand is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it could have helped to draw some voters back from Move Forward. On the other hand, there is a sizeable number of the populace who either dislikes Thaksin or is afraid that his homecoming could reopen old divides, which have led to protests, uprisings, deaths and injuries.
Uncertainties might follow the vote count. Move Forward will now be afraid that it could be isolated. Bhumjaithai’s Anutin Charnvirakul could assert himself as a kingmaker. Senators might seek to flex their muscles if blocks fighting to form a government eye just a slim majority.
If Pheu Thai and Move Forward win more than 250 seats together, they would come under enormous pressure to form a coalition government together. Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat said he would certainly seek talks with Pheu Thai leaders on such a move.
It will be up to Pheu Thai. A bigger-than-expected Move Forward presence in the House would be very demanding when it comes to Cabinet formation. Then again, even if Pheu Thai looks to other potential allies, they would have more or less bargaining power, due to the fact that the party did not win a landslide, which would have made its partnership with anyone simply “ceremonial.”
