August 8, 2024: Every MP of the newly-dissolved Move Forward Party is reportedly set to move to a new registered camp, having learned that voters can punish those who do not.
Political analysts had expected the party to keep hold of all MPs, citing previous election records that showed those who had switched from the camp lost in subsequent elections.
In Thai politics, a popular party can field just about anyone and still win. On the other hand, even popular individuals can lose if they run for relatively unpopular parties. There have been a few exceptions, but the trend is that if you want to win elections, you have to run under the party of the hours.
As far as Move Forward is concerned, it’s just a major relocation in effect, and the formal plans of the changes are expected to be announced by Friday. They include the names of the new executives, of course.
After that, normal (albeit tumultuous) services will be resumed.
August 7, 2024: A decade ago, the social media would have gone totally crazy and all of Thailand would have stood still.
The attention is still fixed on the Constitutional Court today, all right, but the overall mood is quite different because, as even some analysts put it, party dissolution has become somewhat repetitive and boring.
A lot of people could not care less, because all it takes is a new party name and some paper works for normal political business to resume in earnest.
And cynically speaking, in Thai politics, a targeted party might be disappointed if it does not get dissolved. This is strange but it’s also true.
Just ask Thaksin Shinawatra. Party dissolution can always be a popularity booster.
For Move Forward, it can be different in the small scheme of things, as big names are in the executive board. Old timers (in other parties) know better now. They do the same as many newspapers that guard real editors from lawsuits by naming fake editors whose job is to bear the brunt of court cases and nothing else.
But in the grand scheme of things, nothing much will change, at least in the near future. New faces will be propped up. Political fight will go on, even in a more intensified manner. In ideological warfare, anyone can be a proxy.
August 6, 2024: Stock indexes nosediving are perhaps nothing to worry about as long as what drives them _ capitalism _ is not in great, ultimate danger. This year, though, the roller coaster can be a lot more unpredictable and treacherous.
Worldwide stock markets have had miserable days this week, which saw the Dow tumbling more than 1,000 points. The Nasdaq lost 3.5%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell 12%, registering its worst one-day loss since 1987. Less famous markets lost significantly on Monday.
Key analysts led by the Americans blame primarily three things _ growing anxiety about recession, worries about the “notorious” tendency of the US Federal Reserve to misjudge timing for its action, and the usual suspect of unreliable tech stocks which add AI uncertainties this time.
Try to calm down, everyone is told, because there is nothing to fear but fear itself.
Nothing much is said about current and looming wars, though. Even less has been said about America’s presidential election which carries a very high stake of historical proportions, already challenges much-preached democratic principles, and has been intertwined with Ukraine, Palestine, NATO and international stability as a whole.
But remember, capitalism is deeply associated with “democracy”. When “democracy” is doing well, it reflects on the global stock markets. When “democracy” faces growing doubts, not only politicians but also investors should run for cover.
There are some pieces of advice here: If you are an investor, roll with the punches and wait for the time capitalism tells you to go for opportunistic buy. Or you cut your losses and stop being an investor.
And in case you are not an investor in the first place, don’t try unless you are sure you can run faster than the Wolf of Wall Street.
August 5, 2024: There are only two kinds of “I’m sorry”. One is honest as well as heartfelt and those who say so don’t care the least bit about themselves. You simply regret your action and just want to apologise, regardless of consequences.
The other harbours your vested interests, like when you say “I’m sorry” because deep down you want to protect your own image, not your girlfriend’s, or to keep her yours because you know that she is about to inherit a great fortune and another man is hovering.
These are two types of apology. There is nothing in between. We hear them everyday. Which is which? You can judge for yourself.
August 4, 2024: The most inspiring story coming out of the Paris Olympics so far is the first gold medal of an island country in the Caribbean whose flag most people wouldn’t be able to tell and whose population is smaller than any large Thai district.
The event that won St Lucia’s first-ever Olympic medal let alone Gold? Women’s 100m. The achievement took place in a stadium that, if enlarged by just three or four times, would have the capacity to house every single person in her country.
Let that sink in. Julien Alfred was supposed to be one of the world’s biggest sporting figures this year. Nobody had thought she would win, although she did extremely well in the qualifying rounds. Virtual silence greeted her emergence from the tunnel while favourite athletes got loud cheers and excited introductions.
When they all were off the blocks, it’s history. She left everyone trailing, virtually from start to finish. It was one of the most beautiful Olympic moments ever.
Her heroics were a big shock, and major news outlets dutifully gave big attention. Yet her triumph was far from getting the credit it deserved, drowned out amid one controversy after another before and during the Games. Those controversies have overshadowed an occasion that should have celebrated human spirit and unison _ and not magnified divisive politics or religious as well as ideological matters.
St Lucia has fewer than 200,000 citizens but it has fielded athletes at seven previous Olympics without winning a medal. Amid a great divide that other people and other nations caused, Alfred has managed to keep the founding noble aspiration of the Olympics alive.
And in the most stunning manner imaginable.
August 3, 2024: The more Jatuporn Prompan attacks Thaksin Shinawatra, the more nonsensical what the activist did in 2010 looks.
The former street warrior of Pheu Thai has virtually stated that Thaksin was undeniably guilty of corruption, a crime underlined by the former prime minister himself who has officially expressed remorse with the Thai authorities.
Just how absurd does that sound? Jatuporn led a prolonged and largely-violent protest in downtown Bangkok in 2010, in which several people were killed and more were injured and a major shopping mall was virtually burned down, just to send a local and global message that Thaksin was innocent, that he was a victim of political persecution.
Here’s what Jatuporn said on his Facebook Live just hours ago: “Apologists (He used the words “Nai Baek, Nang Baek” meaning men and women who “carry” Thaksin) must take into account that Thaksin has signed statements admitting his crime and displaying remorse. This means he was not framed; that he has confessed.”
So, the one whom some have died for and others have died against, not to mention numerous deaths of the innocent, has now expressed regrets for what he accepted as his “crime”.
Politics must have played a big part in the irony. Jatuporn, meanwhile, should make many things clear apart from attacking Thaksin day in and day out.
The activist has the following questions to answer.
Was he playing for the wrong team in 2010 leading to deaths, injuries and a high degree of political instability? Does he recognize the National Anti-Corruption Commission now? (In his latest Facebook Live statement, Jatuporn strongly suggested that whatever the NACC rules in connection with Thaksin’s “privileged” stay at the Police Hospital, the ruling has to be accepted and processed accordingly).
Which Jatuporn is right, the 2010 version or the 2024 version? Was what Jatuporn did in 2010 wrong, because his current remarks seem to suggest so? Yet if 2010’s Jatuporn was right (Thaksin was innocent), does that mean the activist is unfairly attacking the former prime minister, who shouldn’t be jailed to begin with?
August 2, 2024: Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin seems to have gained some popularity from the eventual kick-off of the Pheu Thai Party’s flagship policy, according to Suan Dusit pollsters.
He still apparently trails Pita Limjaroenrat of the Move Forward Party in the latest Suan Dusit popularity survey, though. However, the ruling Pheu Thai Party can take heart in the finding that the bleeding seems to have slowed down.
The government’s approval score is 4.59 (out of 10) in July compared with 4.33 in June. The opposition got 5.35 in July rising from 4.94 in June.
Pornpan Buathong, who leads the pollsters, said the government’s rating was “a little bit better” but tackling poverty remains the area where the surveyed Thais wanted the administration to improve the most. The start of public registration for Digital Wallet contributed to the slight increase in government popularity, but Thais remained significantly worried about related technological matters.
The opposition, she said, won biggest support for monitoring government work regarding well-being of the people.
Remarkably, issues such as the proliferation of blackchin tilapia cause more Thai anxiety than ideological matters and are what those surveyed wanted the opposition to focus its efforts on the most.
In the end, said Assistant Professor Darngnapasorn Na Pombejra of the Suan Dusit University, grass-root economy will decide the fates of the government and opposition. Support for Digital Wallet, she said, has increased slightly amid local and global economic challenges.
The poll did not compare Srettha and Pita directly, as those surveyed were asked who they liked the most in the government and opposition blocs respectively.
In the coalition government, Srettha is the most popular, getting about 52% support, followed by Anutin Charnvirakul (just over 30%) and Paetongtarn Shinawatra (17.6%).
For the opposition, Pita with almost 59% left Chaithawat Tulathon (more than 23%) far behind. Rangsiman Rome is third with 17.6%. The trio noticeably are from Move Forward.
The message of the surveyed Thais to the opposition is clear: Keep monitoring Digital Wallet.
August 1, 2024: One wing of the American mainstream media is demanding answers to questions surrounding the Donald Trump assassination attempt. The other is hyping up Kamala Harris. This is what cutthroat politics does to a country where “independent” press is supposed to be the world’s model that promotes healthy progress and political rationality.
Forgive the social media, where partisanship is understandably abundant and dictates content. Mainstream media must be different. But can they? One of the most important issues affecting the United States locally and internationally _ an attempt on a potential leader’s life _ is being treated not with journalistic principles or ethics but with political leanings.
In Trump’s case, the pro-Republican media, whether they are doing the right thing for the wrong reason or not, are more dutiful. They are asking questions and demanding answers, rightfully covering congressional investigations into an incident that the government suggested was a one-man act stopped by his death from a precise _ albeit reactive _ bullet.
The Republican media are asking why a youthful loner with no record of firearm or military excellence managed to fool well-trained local and federal law-enforcement officers and carry a rifle and a range finder to finally purge unobstructed atop the best and only sniper shooting spot in the area. They are asking why local officers and the secret service are blaming each other for the fact that the rooftop was not secured, and why the men involved were never put in the same room to answer all of the questions.
The Democrat media, meanwhile, are a lot more interested in rising poll numbers of Kamala Harris and chances of her beating Trump. And yet key suspicion surrounding the abrupt change of heart by President Joe Biden and constitutional questions concerning the primary, a key element of America’s democracy, have not been enthusiastically pursued.
The JFK incident has remained a restless ghost through the decades, although the media at the time were not divisive when the former president was killed and official narratives could be strictly controlled because the social media were non-existent. The Trump case is not “the JFK of the new generation”, as some have called it, but what happened in Pennsylvania just a few days ago, if handled by the media the wrong way, can even put the two together to create a monster that can change America for good.
July 31, 2024: That Facebook screened out an “iconic” picture of the Donald Trump assassination attempt seems to be just one part of a big, intensifying social media battle between the Republicans and Democrats.
Facebook has denied trying to block exposure of the picture of Trump with a bloodied face rising up immediately with one of his fists in the air after a sniper bullet apparently scratched his right ear. Technical and diplomatic language was used by Facebook but it insisted there was never a political intention to suppress it.
That could not stop the Republicans from suspecting a social media conspiracy, though. Google, they say, was as suspicious in the wake of the attempt on his life, because its search engine displayed “Donald Duck” when you typed “Donald” in the immediate aftermath of the killing instead of suggesting “Donald Trump assassination attempt” right away as you would expect the search engine to do. Similarly, when you typed “assassination attempt” the following suggestions would prioritise the Ronald Reagan incident.
Denials were made, imperfect algorithms were blamed, and “improvements” were promised by the social media platforms.
Not surprisingly, suspicion went viral on X, whose owner Elon Musk is not hiding his political leaning. He has weighed in on conspiracy himself and clearly showed how he feels about Trump and Kamala Harris in frequent tweets. Other conspiracy theories are also having a heyday on X.
YouTube has become a fierce battleground. It has seen Trump-mocking clips from the Democrats (both pro-Democrat mainstream media and ordinary people) and Harris-bashing videos (both from pro-Trump mainstream media and men on the streets).
Prediction polls favouring either candidates (Harris needs to be formally confirmed still) are treated differently on YouTube for obvious reasons. For example, a pro-Harris poll would be called a “honeymoon effect” that would not last forever by pro-Trump netizens. Trump’s initial “comfortable leads” are being mocked by those against him.
The Olympics controversy is appearing to fuel the American showdown too, with First Lady Jill Biden leading her side in praising the “spectacular” opening ceremony and the Republicans starting to question the wisdom of the “Last Supper” alteration. Whether the show was meant to promote equality or defy and provoke on a world stage that was supposed to foster unity, not divisiveness, sooner or later it can trigger a new political battlefront in America.
July 30, 2024: Advertisement advertises good bits. One of Apple’s latest promotions certainly does the job for the company, but a big controversy revolves around whether it does the same for Thailand.
Watchers of the controversial Apple advert have got a loud-and-clear message that hi-tech Apple gadgets could help you get through tough times. It’s too bad the scene for those tough conditions happens to be the Land of Smiles.
So, you want to buy Apple devices after watching the commercial, but will you want to come to Thailand, where there definitely are far better airport and hotel facilities, after seeing the advertisement? That’s a question asked by many including some leading expats who have spent years in Thailand and feel that the “adventure” portrayed in the ad benefited just Apple and not Thai tourism.
In fact, a farang who considers Thailand to be his second home is at the forefront of protest.
David William, an American who is an English tutor with 1.8 million Facebook followers and 2.9 million TikTok followers, who has lived in Thailand for a long time, said he was being tempted to buy a Samsung product now after the ad.
The Samsung comment is not exclusive to him. Such feelings are rampant on the Internet.
The line between being exotic and being outdated and thus uncomfortable is very thin, the critics say. That’s why tourist spots renovate and equip otherwise-hot hotel rooms with air conditions, they point out. They feel the advert took away the comfortability of Thailand instead of promoting alluring uniqueness that would attract tourists.
Good advertising features smart use of contrast. Shampoo commercials feature problematic hair. Advertisement of smartphones say what their rivals can’t do. Car ads and rough roads have to go hand in hand. People have to be made to worry about their health in order to buy insurance.
This is where the suspicion came from. Is Thailand at the wrong end of an attempted contrast?
Watch the ad and make your own judgement. Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin certainly has been excited, boasting about the success in making a world-renowned company help Thailand promote the country’s “soft power”. There are those who think he should re-watch the commercial, though.
July 29, 2024: Real wars kill children and women, and political wars can amplify or downplay the killings.
Real wars can be won through debilitating enemies’ militaries, but political wars can be won through showing _ or not showing _ how many innocents have been killed.
We have heard about children and women being killed by bombs, bullets and cannons simply because they have been caught in fighting they knew nothing about. We have seen men who condemn one massacre and support or even carry out another. We have seen governments whose leaders shed tears over one infamy and veto official denunciation of another.
This is how the world works. You can’t win a war completely without being cruel and yet managing to invoke sympathy.
July 28, 2024: There are polls that should be conducted, and there are polls that we can never know why they have to be conducted.
What category should the latest NIDA poll fall into? The pollsters wanted to know who among Thaksin Shinawatra, Newin Chidchob and Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit is publicly perceived to have the biggest influences over the party he is associated with. (Pheu Thai, Bhumjaithai and Move Forward parties respectively.)
Thaksin sleepwalked to the top of the table. Of more than 1,300 Thais surveyed, more than 67% think he is “very much influential” in Pheu Thai, while just under 22% believe he is “rather influential”. Only 5.8% think he is not at all influential.
Newin came second. Almost 46% consider him “very influential” in Bhumjaithai, followed by 34.35% who think he is quite influential, and over 6% who count him out.
Thanathorn (probably thanks to the popularity of Pita Limjaroenrat) is ranked third. Some 41% deem him very influential. More than 36% think he is considerably influential, and 6.7% believe he does not have any influence over the Move Forward Party.
July 27, 2024: The Paris Olympics opening ceremony announcer has caught the Biden disease! Seriously though, what’s the deal with mixing up enemies’ names trend? And can’t we just forgive and forget?
Of course, US President Joe Biden calling Volodymyr Zelensky “President Putin” while ushering the Ukrainian leader onto a NATO summit stage and the Olympics emcee introducing South Korean athletes as coming from North Korea are bad mistakes, but such mishaps happen.
Next probably are calling iPhone chiefs as makers of Samsung Galaxy Flip or praising Coca-Cola at a Pepsi presentation. The Biden excuse _ I was being too focused on defeating Putin _ might come in handy, but it can’t work all the time. The higher the levels of mistake makers, the bigger the chances of gaffes being laughed off and forgotten (unless the media are not on your side, that is).
To be fair to the poor one at the Paris opening ceremony microphone, the official names of South Korea and North Korea can really be confusing leading to a mix-up. To add to that, the faces. Can you tell a South Korean from a North Korean? (Which is a wonder how they have become sworn enemies.)
July 26, 2024: Take away the song Prayut Chan-o-cha partially wrote in the immediate aftermath of his coup, about “returning happiness to Thailand”, it’s fair to say that, during his reign, musical content favouring him was never a hit.
Now that he’s no longer there, the psychological nature of appreciating someone after he or she is not available any more is trying to assert itself, allowing “Miss You, Loong Tu” to take the internet by storm.
Partly, the online hype concerning “Miss You, Loong Tu” has to do with the fact that AI had a hand in the making of the song. Partly, it may have to do with what one YouTube comment implied _ the apparent unpopularity of the Srettha government.
“It takes something special to make people miss Loong Tu,” the comment said. This probably implied that the Prayut government was not that good, but it was relatively not that bad.
Anyway, news outlets have talked about the song. Social media users are sharing it. There are people who actually are missing him and there are others who are expressing contempt because they genuinely didn’t like his government.
Both groups, however, may have one thing in common. They probably are thinking how “lucky” Prayut has been now that Srettha Thavisin is drawing all the fire.
July 25, 2024: In Thaksin Shinawatra’s extending list of former devotees who have become his critics or enemies, he should fear Chalerm Yoobamrung the most.
Of course, Sondhi Limthongkul, after friendship turned sour, led a prolonged protest that finally led to a coup against the Thaksin government, and Chamlong Srimuang had let the former prime minister take over the Palang Dharma Party only to turn against him later, but those are things in the past. Chalerm has a lot to do with current developments that are believed to include many potentially-damaging secrets.
Chalerm’s threatened breakaway from Pheu Thai alludes to exposure of such secrets and one thing about Chaerlm is that when he talks, he unleashes it in a no-holds-barred manner.
Apart from Sondhi and Chamlong, there are the likes of Snoh Thienthong and Newin Chidchob. Jatuporn Prompan is a former Red Shirt leader, a street warrior who was willing to die for Thaksin. Then there is Sudarat Keyuraphan, who was once considered a prime ministerial candidate of Pheu Thai but then forced to leave the party with a considerable degree of bitterness.
Chalerm can spill a lot of beans that involve latest affairs, such as the alleged “deal” with the conservatives, the much-criticised digital wallet agenda and even the curious relationship with the likes of Thanathorn Juangroonruangkit.
July 24, 2024: After the Donald Trump assassination attempt, every politician in America was speaking about the “urgent need” to lower the political temperature. The opposite is happening and intensifying.
The deeply and vociferously divided American public cannot be controlled. But to be fair, the politicians are not really helping. In fact, the political figures are playing a big part in refueling the mutual hate.
The highly partisan media are once again tearing both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris apart depending on who they support. The Democrats are going back to demonising Trump while the Republicans are openly suggesting that the Trump shooting was a conspiracy to end the life of a highly-popular politician and that what has happened to Joe Biden was in effect a coup that hijacked an integral part of American democracy.
So much for “we have to do away with divisive rhetoric”.
It will get uglier and uglier. The worst part is that the aforementioned is what’s happening on the surface. What lies beneath can be a lot scarier.
The next president, whoever it is, will have to govern like Thailand’s Samak Sundaravej, or Somchai Wongsawat, or Abhisit Vejjajiva, or Prayut Chan-o-cha, or Srettha Thavisin. This is saying that the “enemy within” will always be the biggest problem for the United States, not Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping.
July 23, 2024: “Civil War” is the word used by a pro-Trump YouTube news channel to describe hectic developments in the US Democratic Party, but infighting that could doom her possible presidential candidacy is not Kamala Harris’ only concern.
Constitutional and legal factors favour her nomination to replace Democratic primary winner Joe Biden who has announced his withdrawal from the presidential race. Some 4,000 primary delegates won by Biden should be able to endorse her relatively drama-free because he supports her. There should be the least trouble that way, and this gives her the biggest pre-convention advantage.
But powerful Democrats (the names include Barack Obama) are not agreeing on her being the best Biden alternative, so there could be a serious showdown on the convention days next month unless a deal is struck before the major event.
Apart from regular delegates supporting Biden, there are also “super delegates” who are essentially party VIPs including MPs, senators, governors and national committee members. There are hundreds of them. Not enough to sway the regular delegates if they are united, but influential all the same. The super delegates can even be more influential if cracks appear among the regular delegates who, despite having pledged loyalty to Biden, are virtually “unbound” now with him gone.
Why are some of the Democrats unsure about Harris? Critics say that for all the self-destruct potentials of Donald Trump when he makes public remarks, Harris can make him the most eloquent and knowledgeable speaker when it comes to global and political affairs. The critics also say that if Biden is comparatively unpopular among voters, Harris can be more so.
Trump even said she was easier to beat than Biden, and he must be waiting for the days they would have a public debate. He is a part of why Harris should not worry about just the Democratic in-house trouble. With Biden gone, the Republicans are already zooming in on her with systematic online mockery and background digging on their social media channels accessible to hundreds of millions.
The Republican campaign against Harris will only intensify in the days to come. Some of its focus is currently spared for something else, or Biden’s weird move to be specific. He announced his withdrawal out of the blue, having said defiantly time and again that he would remain in the race, that only God could change his mind, that he was the only person who could beat Trump.
That he announced his ultra-important decision in writing is a major reason why the Republicans suspect something fishy has been going on. Behind the scenes there could be a gun to his head, one guest told a news host in a tongue-in-cheek manner. One key social media influencer said Biden probably just signed the withdrawal announcement others had written for him entirely. Another slammed “the least presidential thing to do” because Biden should have talked to the American public on live TV when it comes to such a crucial national matter.
July 22, 2024: It will take some convincing to make the US public and the whole world believe that Joe Biden decided to drop out of the presidential race out of his own free will.
Just hours before the shocking announcement, he was still defiant about running against Donald Trump. His re-election bid, however, was very shaky after the “debate” with the former president and virtually doomed after the latter narrowly and heroically escaped an assassination attempt a few days ago.
The Democratic Party knew Biden did not stand a chance in November. Even replacing him does not guarantee a win against an opponent who has become a virtual rock star. Speculation is that the Democrats went for the replacement anyway at the price of Biden.
American news outlets, quoting “reliable sources”, had been talking about attempts by former Biden supporters including those within his own party to make him feel that his candidacy was untenable.
The decision to drop out is historic because it happens after the primary. Biden’s “willingness” is crucial if those wanting him replaced are to avoid a major legal and constitutional headache. Yet even though it seems officially voluntary, there will remain big bumps on the road up until the Democratic convention day next month.
Speculation is centring on Vice President Kamala Harris, whom Biden supports, but there are realistic chances of other candidates being propped up or asserting themselves. The big hurdle of Biden holding on to his primary rights has been removed, but minor ones are also daunting.
Biden’s letter to the American public, read at every US breaking news programme early Monday morning, Thailand time, did not mention peer pressure (which could destroy the entire party), and insisted that he was doing it for the country’s best interest.
He did say one unquestionably right thing, though.
After the expected “Thank you America” and talking about his achievements, the end of Biden letter said “There is nothing America can’t do”. But what comes next in the very same sentence, he may be wrong.
This is the full sentence: “There is nothing America can’t do _ when we do it together.”
Everyone, cynically or else, knows that America can do anything. Doubters, however, must be wondering if latest developments in the United States are what Americans have done or wanted them together.
July 21, 2024: There should be no debate on which ideological system is the luckiest on earth. Donald Trump’s latest speech tells us why.
Called “a threat to democracy” by his enemies, he has told a rally in Michigan that he “took a bullet for democracy” last week. This has brought the already-huge political irony in the United States to the next level and put a big question mark on a doctrine cherished by much of the world.
US President Joe Biden always says he will die defending democracy. He, his government and his supporters have deemed Trump one of the system’s greatest threats. The incumbent is accused by the Republicans of being a big, lying hypocrite who wouldn’t hesitate to weaponize the justice system against his political enemies, a practice which makes him the “real threat” to democracy.
Now Trump has amplified the puzzle by insisting that he took the bullet for something he is accused of being a threat to.
“I stand before you only by the grace of almighty God,” he said during a political rally in Michigan, repeating his belief that divine intervention saved him from being killed.
Attended by vociferous thousands, it was Trump’s first election campaign rally with new running mate JD Vance – and first since he survived the assassination attempt and was officially named the Republican Party’s presidential candidate.
Whether he really is a threat or protector, Trump told the crowd that he was ready to “take back the White House”. He also suggested security arrangement on the day he was shot was questionable.
Meanwhile, the man who says that democracy will die under Trump is still having his presidential candidacy hang by a thread. Democrat rebels _ and a few other powerful people doing it secretly _ are not giving up attempts to replace Biden with someone to be advertised as better poised to fight for democracy. The media and analysts are speculating that it was likeliest that the torch would be passed to Vice President Kamala Harris.
If democracy was a woman, all men are saying they are ready to die protecting her. But her problem is which one she should believe.
July 20, 2024: The last thing Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin wants is for what expert-for-all-seasons Wassanu Krea-ngam said is possible to come true, according to another expert.
Former red-shirted leader Jatuporn Prompan, who has turned completely against the Pheu Thai Party completely, predicted that if Thaksin becomes government adviser publicly and openly as Wissanu said he could after serving up his legal sentence, the former prime minister “will bring protesters to Government House every day” and possibly flood the ruling camp with constitutional violation charges.
Thailand’s Constitution deems a political party unlawful and subjected to dissolution if it is influenced by an “outsider”. However, this constitutional clause designed to keep puppeteers away from political parties is always hard to enforce, because the line between “advice” or “doing what the people want” and being unconstitutionally controlled by a non-board entity is extremely thin, if it exists at all.
But it does not matter whether the line is thin or thick, Jatuporn suggested. Srettha will have a constant and recurring nightmare when Thaksin starts to give open governmental advice, he said.
“That will be when Prime Minister Srettha becomes absolutely miserable,” Jatuporn said during his Facebook live. “Thaksin could bring mobs to Government House every day and reporters would go to interview him more than the prime minister.”
Jatuporn has a great point here. Imagine Srettha and Thaksin talk about the same administrative matter on the same day and at the same time. Photos of how many microphones there are could be bigger news than the subject addressed itself.
July 19, 2024: If you are accused of telling a big lie, why not try avoiding discussing it by telling a small one?
Reporters noticed that when Senator Keskamol Pleansamai “talked” on her mobile phone while they approached her at Parliament this morning, the home screen still showed. One news headline about that incident asked if she was on an “imaginary” phone call.
The newly-elected senator appeared at Parliament today, apparently to wrap up some documentation business. The woman was a focus of media attention for the obvious reasons but she left without adding new information to what has been reported or gossiped about her.
Keskamol smiled as usual though, and that was all reporters could get.
(Writer’s note: The picture accompanying this update is a file photo obviously, as nothing like that happened today.)
July 18, 2024: One joke popular among Thai comedians years ago involves how a cunning pharmacy advertises itself. “Medicine is sold by Pesatchakorn (Pharmacist) Parinya (Holding university degree)” says the sign in front of that pharmacy.
People rush to buy medicine from the pharmacy, convinced that it is supervised by a pharmacist who graduated from a university. They do not know that Pesatchakorn Parinya is a person whose name is Pesatchakorn and whose surname is Parinya. That person had his whole name and surname changed for the purpose of attracting prospective customers to the place.
Legal, moral and social questions or messages emerging from that joke are more or less similar to the ones in the mushrooming controversy over educational credentials of Senator Keskamol Pleansamai. Some of the questions may not have to do with her directly and the “California University” can be more frowned upon, but you get the idea.
The social media investigation is intensifying and she will have to worry more about potential criminal action, not just the Election Commission. A person can change his or her name to “Pesatchakorn Parinya” as it’s not against the law, but is it totally lawful to use Pesatchakorn Parinya to boost a business through misdirection?
The woman who won the most votes in the new Senate can get away with a “How could I have known?” defense, but her long-term reputation and new-found political glory are at risk. Her senatorial status will not be affected by educational controversies, but it will be seriously impacted if it can be proved that she drew support and admiration during the election through dishonest means.
One thing that many people do not understand is why she has not put it all to rest or at least tried to ease the damage by showing relevant items like her thesis back-up (it’s unthinkable for a professor not to back up important documents that he or she writes) or employment contracts as a tutor, or a work permit.
July 17, 2024: Thailand’s political direction will depend heavily on the day the Constitutional Court delivers its verdict on the Move Forward case, and its rival Pheu Thai Party will be equally anxious.
August 7 will be closely watched. Will Move Forward, accused of attempting to upend Thailand’s political administrative system, be dissolved? If it is dissolved, how far the punishment goes? Will it affect popular Pita Limjaroenrat who is holding an advisory position in the party?
Those are the basic questions on everyone’s mind. “Everyone” definitely includes Pheu Thai, whose relationship with the conservatives is virtually hanging by a thread, depending on the degree of the reluctant allies’ worries about Move Forward.
If Move Forward is perceived as posing less threat politically, Pheu Thai will have sleepless nights. The ruling party has several policies that the conservatives do not like, and the resurgence or increased political relevance of Thaksin Shinawatra is being frowned upon more and more.
Both he and Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin are haunted by legal troubles _ existing or potential _ themselves, which can explode any minute.
July 16, 2024: All of a sudden, it matters very little if Joe Biden will or should be replaced or not. Developments over the past two days have all but confirmed that the most important thing he or any potential Democratic alternative should do is pray that the rock bottom has already been hit.
The euphoria at the Republican convention hours ago is one big ironic contrast. It could have been the gloomiest event had the bullet been a centimeter or two off its path. As things stand, although reports said under-the-surface attempts to field a new Democratic candidate were still on-going, the efforts may not be as intense as last week, which saw several sources predicting a major Democratic tsunami against Biden’s bid for a second term.
Today, everyone is concentrating on the investigation, and leaders of both warring sides in the United States have called for the lowering of political temperature. They are unlikely to succeed in stopping what they started, though, with “conspiracy theorists” far outnumbering the official investigators.
This, however, does not mean suspicions leading to outrageous theories have unreasonably come from nothing. Curious people in fact have strong grounds to suspect that something lies far beyond what has been officially said so far.
The following is why, which revolves around puzzling “security” at the rally:
1) As we see in the movies, protective “snipers” and other agents should have scanned the area using powerful binoculars. Why those at the Trump rally area had not spotted a young man lying openly in a shooting position on a clear rooftop nearby is questionable indeed.
2) To add to 1), that rooftop is the only place in the area where an assassin would station himself or herself. It should have been easy. Should have it been secured and crawling with agents hours or days before the rally? How the young “gunman” with a rifle kit managed to go into the building, let alone access the best striking spot in the area and be comfortably poised to shoot, is a major question.
3) Despite 1) and 2), the protective agents responded immediately after the gunman fired his rifle, instantly killing him. If they had not scanned the rooftop before, it was the swiftest, most precise and most efficient response. Then again, if they had scanned the rooftop before, why didn’t they spot the gunman and stop him?
4) It was against a backdrop of unprecedentedly-cutthroat political divide. Stakes could not have been higher. Trump was holding substantial leads in all presidential predictions.
5) Trump had vowed to immediately end the Ukraine war, an attitude that was considerably different from Biden’s belligerence. NATO policies are also a big issue. Some people stand to lose big. Many analysts could not help bringing up John F Kennedy and the American war in Vietnam which he decided to end. There are other comparisons as well: Gunmen with mental issues acting alone; gunmen killed before being able to say anything; and gunmen making unbelievable shots and such skills belied relatively-easy downfalls.
“Conspiracy theorists” are not exclusively wild-eyed people with messy hair playing computers in the basements this time. Extreme suspicion has extended to many Republicans on the streets. They discussed it at public parks, shopping malls or restaurants, aided by “social media investigators” in the rest of the world.
By the way, Trump has officially picked Ohio Senator J.D. Vance as his running mate, a development that would have been played up three days ago.
July 15, 2024: The whole world has just witnessed the biggest difference a centimeter can make. Or at least many people on the planet believe so.
One western TV broadcaster summed it up perfectly: “If it had been one centimeter or two off the ear, we would have talked about it totally differently right now.”
That alternate reality is hair-raising. But what’s happening now is that Donald Trump has been martyred alive. Many Republicans and Democrats have come to firmly believe that the election is “over” the minute Trump, blood on his face, walked off the chaotic scene mobbed by protective bodyguards with one of his fists in the air and shouted “Fight” defiantly.
“That’s a campaign photo right there,” leading Thai journalist Suthichai Yoon said on his YouTube live. Few would disagree. It’s an election-winning picture hands down.
The Democrats’ extremely-bad period is still unfolding. Late last month, Joe Biden stuttered and froze during a televised debate with Trump, who was for the first time taking significant leads in popularity surveys. The president then faced a rebellion within his own Democratic Party. Then he made some more gaffes, first at the NATO summit and later at a press conference intended to prove that he was cognitively strong.
All the hate words _ political rhetoric that demonised Trump uttered by government politicians and amplified in no small measure by the media _ are being put under the microscope right now.
A group of Republican lawmakers are blaming Biden, saying his “bullseye” campaign rhetoric led to the attempted assassination. BBC quoted Politico as reporting that Biden said during a phone call to donors: “I have one job, and that’s to beat Donald Trump. I’m absolutely certain I’m the best person to be able to do that. So, we’re done talking about the debate. It’s time to put Trump in a bullseye.”
Certainly Biden did not mean that Trump had to be killed, but the “bullseye” remark is going viral all the same.
Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, a potential Trump vice presidential pick, said on X shortly after the shooting that Biden’s rhetoric was to blame, CNN reported. “Today is not just some isolated incident. The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs,” he said. “That rhetoric led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination.”
South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, another potential VP pick and top Trump ally, also said on X, was also quoted by CNN: “Let’s be clear: This was an assassination attempt aided and abetted by the radical Left and corporate media incessantly calling Trump a threat to democracy, fascists, or worse.”
One pro-Trump media outlet has aired clips of certain Democratic supporters lamenting _ some rather hysterically _ the near miss. America, the channel said, should not have come to this point. It noted that it was not an extremely-rare clip done by a hardliner, but that such content could easily be found and attracted agreeable comments on the social media.
In short, while Trump was bloodied, the Democrats were hurt more than him. Trump’s own rhetoric referring to things like “bloodbath” was fading into the background, and it would raise the question of who demonised whom first.
How could the world have changed had the bullet been more pinpointed? A successful assassination would have still landed the Republicans a big presidential victory, but without Trump a lot of things would have been wildly uncertain. One of the questions is whether the election would have been possible at all.
As of now, it looks like the presidential race will not be affected, although November can turn out to be just a formality.
July 14, 2024: Politics spills blood everywhere, be it at the most autocratic or democratic places. There are just two reasons _ one is the urge to win at all costs, and the other is hate.
Conspiracy theories will abound immediately after what happened at a Donald Trump rally in Pennsylvania, not least because it took place during one of America’s most politically tumultuous periods in modern times. Nobody will ever know the truth.
As usual, the “gunman” was dead, and there goes the most important “link” if he was not acting alone. Political rallies will never be the same in the United States, which has seen a civil war and countless political assassinations and attempted assassinations. The JFK story will be revisited, if not other incidents that have remained questionable until today. This November’s election will have added meanings.
And it can get worse tomorrow or the day after tomorrow.
Blame it on a politics that is cutthroat, divisive, spawns massive vested interests and sows the fast-growing seeds of hatred on all sides through propagandas and words that demonise the targets. Those things cannot be hindered by technological advances or what we think are “free” and “responsible” media. The only difference between now and then is that today’s violence is occurring before everyone.
July 13, 2024: The question of whether we, the human beings, are alone or not will definitely and unequivocally be answered in our lifetime, a key scientist involved in the operations of the James Webb Space Telescope believes.
This week marks two years since the JWST beamed its very first images to earth, jeopardising mainstream cosmological knowledges in the process. As the “futures” of famous or important humans as well as their organisations, systems or ideologies are being discussed, focused on, or speculated, the highly-sophisticated equipment is continuing to look farther and farther back into the past, billions of years before Joe Biden was born.
It’s a mission greater than finding extraterrestrial life, but, along the way, the JWST will help answer the haunting question of whether movies like Star Wars or Guardians of the Galaxy are pure fantasies or a glimpse of things to come.
Marking the two-year occasion, www.dazeddigital.com published an interview with Dr Amber Straughn, one of astrophysicists at NASA who know the JWST inside an out. She was asked about the hunt for aliens.
“I think we will discover life – microbial life – in our solar system, definitely within our lifetime,” says Straughn. “And I’m very hopeful that we’ll see these signs of life on other planets in our lifetime as well.”
The website stated that these are big claims, but it pointed out that they have not come from nowhere, saying that with the JWST help, scientists have uncovered a few key signs of alien life over the last couple of years, including all-important carbon-bearing molecules on the ‘habitable-zone’ exoplanet K2-18 b. Dazeddigital was, however, quick to mention that other researchers have cast doubts over this initially.
July 12, 2024: Although embattled American President Joe Biden mindbogglingly referred to Volodymyr Zelensky as “President Putin” at the NATO summit, the Ukrainian president would still root for him in November.
It’s like saying “Please give Prayut Chan-o-cha a big applause” while ushering Pita Limjaroenrat onto the stage, but Biden gaffes are so thick and fast these days that opponents and supporters alike are looking for a blunder-free week rather than a misstep or lapse of attention.
Besides, there is something that Zelensky should worry about more. Americans are being divided by the Ukraine war like never before. The Republicans’ call for an immediate end to the fighting through a truce is getting louder whereas the White House is as, if not more, belligerent.
Zelensky’s controversial political backgrounds have also become more glaring to the Republicans, who have started to apparently feel that a notorious politician is hiding behind White House backing and Biden-supported NATO, and is virtually holding his country hostage.
The Republicans are charging that the Biden administration is creating a false impression, as confirmed by the US president’s NATO summit speech, that Ukraine stands a good chance to win the war, while in fact the country is being pummelled by Russia’s military superiority.
One major public claim is that the Biden government is “lying” to all Americans, all Ukrainian people and the whole world regarding how the war will end, leading to unnecessary deaths in Ukraine in the process.
A power shift in America would therefore seriously affect the Ukrainian president.
This means Zelensky can never bring himself to support Donald Trump. This should also mean that, as long as the money and military hardware keep coming, Biden can call him anything.
July 11, 2024: It’s like you are a bully’s best friend, or the best friend of someone a bully hates. That’s the unspoken meaning of the newly-released finding from the Pew Research Centre.
Things can be difficult either way. If you are a bully’s best friend, the bully’s biggest enemy may not like you or may not trust you. If you are the best friend of someone targetted by a bully, the bully may view you with suspicion.
This is not to mention friends of the bully, or friends of the bully’s target.
The Pew report said Thailand holds the most favourable views of China among people in 35 countries surveyed. A diplomatic nightmare, therefore, is all but guaranteed.
America and China are enemies. That is certain. But who’s the bully? It’s debatable and depends on one’s world views. As mentioned above, it can be very tough either way.
To make matters more complicated, Thai politicians fighting for power at the moment are divided into a pro-China camp on one side and a pro-US camp on the other.
To make it sound a little romantic, Thailand will be torn between two lovers.
July 10, 2024: “Forceful” is the most popular word in western media’s headlines on the US president’s speech at the Nato summit in Washington this week, but the reason is not to intimidate Russia.
“Forceful” is meant to underline Joe Biden’s attempts to appear strong physically and hence ease doubts about his cognitive conditions.
But things are taking place against a backdrop of what was said to be his most important period of his re-election campaign that is still teetering as of now.
It’s like watching a highly-intense political drama on TV with so many twists and turns that you can’t tell good guys from the bad ones and you don’t know whom to feel pity for or to root for. Most importantly, you can’t predict how it ends.
Let’s recap. After the debate debacle late last month, Biden is fighting with his supporters, or those who used to support him to be exact. His enemies, Donald Trump and the Republicans, have been fading into the background, rather voluntarily because they think the pro-Biden apparatus is shooting itself in the foot so they’d better sit and watch.
Democrat rebels who want him to be replaced as the party’s presidential candidate are increasing in numbers and they are clashing with the White House. Previously pro-Biden media outlets have hopped on the Biden-out bandwagon, with the issue of democratic transparency pummeling the government in particular. (It doesn’t mean that the Democratic Party and the media are being totally honest, though.)
It does not matter if Biden is facing some form of a conspiracy or not. Even if the debate with Trump was a set-up aimed at eventually replacing him, the current downward spiral certainly had not been expected by anyone. At stake now is not Biden’s future, but the future of American democracy entirely.
The latest setback is that George Stephanopoulos, the ABC news anchor who recently interviewed Biden about his fitness for the presidential race, was caught on camera Tuesday indicating that what he witnessed made him think Biden could not serve another four years.
However, over the past few days, Biden has issued strong statements, verbally and in the form of a defiant letter to the Democratic Party, that he would stay in the presidential race, and that the Democrats should challenge him at the party’s convention if they want another candidate.
And currently there is no better stage to demonstrate a leader’s fitness, military acumen and strong ideological resolution than the Nato summit. In a brief but strongly delivered remark at the opening of the summit, the president declared the military alliance “more powerful than ever” as it faced a “pivotal moment” with the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Warning that “autocrats” were overturning global order”, Biden announced more military aid for Kyiv. “The war will end with Ukraine remaining a free and independent country,” Biden was quoted by the BBC, which remarkably added that he was reading a teleprompter. Ukraine was assured of financial and military support.
Forceful or not, Russia definitely is not squirming. It must be praying for Biden to overcome the existing obstacles, in fact (on condition that the existing suspicion about his health and cognitive abilities is true). Those who are squirming must be some Americans, or even those who used to be his unconditional supporters.
The Democratic Party, specifically the rebellious members, must have watched the Nato summit performance with mixed feelings. They installed him almost four years ago (amid Trump’s vociferous charges that they did so illegally), but now that some of them want him out, he is vociferously refusing to go (unless, of course, they find a legal albeit vociferous way to do so).
July 10, 2024: A small, ongoing protest has caught apparently-insignificant attention, yet an easier access to cannabis and other controversial “herbs” is in fact one of the world’s most important issues, one that can upend the global economy.
The conventional world economy depends largely on human beings’ fear of death. People buy medicine, go to hospital, eat “clean” food, consume supplements, take out insurance, undergo tests for, say, cancer and etc because they believe in a narrative that supports arguably the most lucrative and massive industry on the planet: Modern medicine is the only way to go.
That industry even coined a word to back up the virtual drug copyright _ drug patent. It was meant to avoid saying copyright outright but it’s a huge humanitarian question suppressed by giant entities that few dare to challenge all the same.
The more limited the researches and experiments are, the more widespread and invincible the modern medicine becomes.
Imagine what a blow it would be for that industry if traditional medicine gets a big boost. People talk about legislation that could turn things around ideologically or militarily strategically, but what is equally, if not more, important, is legislation that could revitalise old medical wisdom and rattle the related status quo.
Modern medicine makes some people and countries rich and powerful, and that state of affairs has to be protected at all costs. Alternatives, therefore, spark big controversies immediately and without exception.
Pro-legalisation activists are holding sporadic demonstrations near Government House after the Srettha government announced it was reversing the “more open” cannabis policy. “We have been told lies and cannabis is being once again demonised,” a leader, Prasitthichai Nunual, was quoted as saying.
The group has threatened an “upgraded” protest but the Pheu Thai-led government is unlikely to back down. The protesters are so small in numbers and their opponents are so buying into anti-legalisation narrative that their threat will be laughed at by many people.
But, no pun intended, cannabis is no laughing matter. It can even pose a huge democratic question.
July 8, 2024: The only big difference from Thailand is that the French target of a political ganging up is the far right. The rest is virtually the same.
A divided Parliament. Policies that ambivalent partners do not see eye to eye on. A forced alliance that can end any minute. Expected difficulties when it comes to passing a law. (One thing missing could be a return of a convict from exile who can have lunch with the prime minister.)
Any “liberal” somewhere else who may be feeling the urge to celebrate should spare a thought. The far-right movement in France must be feeling hard done by. And take away the ideology, they are going through something very similar to what’s happening half the world away.
July 7, 2024: Without googling, do you know the names of key far-right leaders tipped to take political powers in France? But even a non-football fan should know who the best footballer France is having at the moment.
By the same token, if you are non-English, can you spell the name of the leader of the Labour Party who is becoming the new UK prime minister (if you know the name at all). But you should be able to tell who Harry Kane is, right?
What makes it more interesting is the fact that football news is rarely on the front page while political news is guaranteed utmost coverage the whole time, whether it’s the front page or the home page.
It’s not totally fair to ask about “foreigners”, some may protest. Let’s make it a little easier, then. Who’s Ratchanok Intanont? And who’s Permpoon Chidchob? One, two, three. Time’s up.
What’s the point of all this? It’s the fact that people who are supposed to affect our lives considerably are those who actually don’t interest us or matter to us at all. And it’s also the fact that while we focus on something else, a teeny group of people are making rules, setting agendas, manipulating news and telling a vast majority of the world how to live.
If the minority people are so important and relevant, we should be able to keep track of them by heart, not when an election is taking place.
If politics is not highly overrated, it needs a very serious reform.
July 6, 2024: Joe Biden dug a hole for himself, the White House and the entire Democratic Party during last week’s debate with Donald Trump, and the hole is just getting deeper following the US president’s first-ever media interview since that day.
He blamed his poor debate performance on a terrible cold. The event should have been postponed then. Everyone would have understood. Certainly, there are enough credible doctors in America who could have told the world “He is too ill to go on that stage.” The White House even could have had a Trump doctor examine him and thus confirm the story.
It was not a football final or a rock star concert, to begin with. Nobody had bought a pricey ticket. There would have been disappointment, but it would have been acceptable.
A possible story is that Biden had not told anyone he was not well. Yet he talked about Covid-19 tests during the interview, which means that if the tests had taken place before the debate the doctor(s) then should have known. And in case they honestly did not know, if a 81-year-old president managed to slip through the White House medical observation and go to the podium, he is a genius warrior and there is no need to replace him.
Earlier, the narrative was jet lag. That was an equally, if not more, nonsensical excuse. A president has to travel all the time. One day to Europe and the next to the Middle East for example. And isn’t the South China Sea also a flashpoint?
How many days should the president of a vast nation that requires frequent cross-country travelling rest after a trip? Three full days? One full week? Two full weeks? This is not to mention that Air Force One must have great facilities and personnel to make every presidential journey a lot more comfortable than those taken by ordinary people.
Voters should be totally informed about all that, and more, before making their decisions.
The travelling issue did not feature during the ABC interview, but the much-anticipated event is not going to make things easier for the White House and the Democrats, who have seen talks about the alleged presidential cognitive decline go from being a taboo to a media and global uproar in a matter of days. He told the interviewer only God could tell him not to run, so it would have to take an unbelievably good script to convince him _ and then America and the rest of the world _ that he must drop out of the race.
A bad script will make the pro-Biden camp look like they only care about winning, not an old man with health problems. A bad script will beg the question if they had looked everyone in the eyes and lied. A bad script will prompt a lot of people to ask: Who has been running America over the past few months? A bad script will also make it spill over to some big names in the media, who will have to explain why they did not know beforehand and report it truthfully.
A bad script can even make American democracy, something Biden had said he would die defending, crumble.
July 5, 2024: Amid whirlwind global and domestic politics, one figure escaped much public attention over the past few days.
That figure is one million. Which leads to a tantalizing question: How many children and youths who have had to drop out of school would benefit if the ruling Pheu Thai Party turned its controversial flagship policy, digital wallet, into a full-scale rescue mission for the youngsters?
Digital wallet requires some Bt500 billion which the government intends to extract from state budget rearrangements and borrowing from the farmers’ bank. Most Thais, entitled or not, would receive free money to buy goods from government-designated sellers.
Digital wallet is controversial for a few main reasons: It is blanket, meaning those not so needy would get the money, allegedly defies monetary disciplines of the state, and unnecessarily (also allegedly) requires creation and instalment of a new app while an old one should do.
Imagine Bt50,000 is allocated for each school dropout. That would cost just Bt50 billion. Double the help and it would amount to only Bt100 billion. If the government is serious about its zero dropout policy, this should do it.
And it is a moral, economic (children are every country’s future) and political win-win. Critics would shut their mouths. The central bank would go silent. The media would sing praises in unison.
Just a thought.
July 4, 2024: The White House has dismissed the chances that Joe Biden will withdraw from the presidential race. A few Democratic “doubters” in high places have either made a U-turn or significantly eased their opposition to his candidacy.
But his and the United States’ futures remain highly uncertain.
The most important difference between the Republicans and Democrats at the moment is that while Trump is not dispensable, Biden is. The Republican Party had to go for Trump despite all his big legal and political troubles because he is its only chance to beat a Democratic candidate. The other side, meanwhile, has been dictated by a “Whoever can beat Trump” mentality, meaning that if it has to be anyone but Biden, then so be it.
So, the name of Michelle Obama has become the most-favoured, although she said time and again that she would never run, that even life of being a First Lady was tough enough when her husband, Barack Obama, was president. Current Vice President Kamala Harris has thus been the next best thing.
Both ladies have, in public at least, showed full support for Biden. And so have a few Democratic governors tipped to be a replacement. Yet nobody know what they are thinking. There have been whispers that Barack Obama, who has publicly expressed total backing for Biden, cannot see the president beating Trump in November.
And although she is guarding Biden’s primary entitlement as a lioness protecting her cub, Jill Biden has said one sentence that aroused curiosity. She said her husband “would do anything that is best for the country.” On the one hand, she was saying so while defending his working records. On the other hand, that little statement has been wildly interpreted as a suggestion that he would do anything to guarantee that Trump would lose.
So, the replacement door has not been slammed shut. There will continue to be speculation, rumours or even real turmoil up until the Democratic national convention in August. Even the pro-Biden camp seems currently unsure what should be done. Should they stick with him and thus give Trump a great chance to win? Or should they replace him and risk a bigger catastrophe that could be so hard to recover from _ being seen as a grand liar who knew about his conditions all along but decided to keep it a secret against the principles of transparency and democracy?
July 3, 2024: Can Jill Biden stop the lengthening “Biden out” bandwagon?
She has been demonised by many people in America and much of the world, and now it seems the most-maligned First Lady in memory stands between growing attempts to remove him as the Democratic presidential candidate and his fading chance to get the second White House term.
The “Biden out” narrative is increasingly widespread, ironically among the Democrats and their supporters. The Republicans naturally want him to stay in the race, because they think the man stands no chance against Donald Trump in November.
In fact, a conspiracy theory has begun to strike a chord among some Republicans, who are suspecting that Joe Biden was intentionally hung out to dry last week so that he could be replaced in time.
What caused the suspicion was the fact that the debate was the earliest in US history, noticeably before the Democratic national convention during which the presidential candidate would be formally named and that would be a point of no return.
As belligerent after the debate as Joe Biden has appeared to be, he will listen to his wife about what to do next. Conspiracy or no conspiracy, a lot will depend on Jill Biden. She will influence how things develop that would affect not just America but the whole world.
So far, she is ferociously determined to see him run. That is the reason why the much of the world has condemned the woman, questioning her love for him.
Although she physically assisted the visibly-wobble Joe Biden in public several times including after last week’s fateful debate, a lot of people are saying that if she truly loves him, making him continue is out of the question.
July 2, 2024: Maybe America’s presidential election is still a little bit too far away. Anyone wanting immediate excitement should look no further than France on July 7.
The European nation is closer than ever in its modern history to being largely governed by the far right led by the National Rally Party. Parliamentary elections which have been half-way through are the country’s most consequential in decades and will have huge implications across Europe and for the United States, politically, diplomatically and militarily.
France’s status quo led by French President Emmanuel Macron could adjust their candidates and still have the possibility of blocking France’s first far right government since World War II, a likely change that will be unleash great ramifications domestically and internationally.
The far right already has one foot in the corridor of power and a lot of analysts believe that the surging movement would try to become “more mainstream” by avoiding to look so extreme. The movement is known to be vehemently against many things the “liberals” or “centrists” like, including the policies of NATO and the United States.
It did extremely well in the first round of the elections days ago, but the liberals will throw the kitchen sink in the second round, in which candidates that did poorly in the first will likely take no part as a last-ditch effort to prevent another sweeping victory of National Rally.
The irresistible surge of the far right is said to be a reason why President Macron has appeared of two minds in public lately. One day he would say something to please the rightists, only to conduct himself as a “liberal” the next.
Did he dissolve the elected Parliament to open the door for the far right, or was he just egoistic and tried to prove that the country democratically did not want a massive change?
He has been vocally anti-extremism over the past few days, though.
The National Rally’s leader, Marine Le Pen, seems to still push forward anti-immigration, anti-foreigner policies. She’s still perceived by many analysts as fundamentally anti-European, anti-American as well. How the party will co-exist and share powers with Macron has been a big question mark.
Parties opposed to National Rally are ganging up against it. Hopeless candidates not standing a chance have been urged to drop out of the second round, in order to get more votes to those first-round losers who have stronger potentials.
France’s president and prime minister constitute a special governing system considered “semi-presidential”. The president is relatively aloof from day-to-day affairs compared with the prime minister. Think of the former as a company’s chairman and the latter as the CEO. When they are the same page, it’s great. If they disagree or quarrel, there can be a big problem.
When the president’s political backers control Parliament, the president becomes dominant in executive affairs, being able to influence government appointments, for example. But when the president’s political opponents control Parliament, things naturally get tough.
July 1, 2024: The latest Dusit Poll says what everyone knows and probably feels, which is that Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin is not Thailand’s most popular man and political fatigue is prevalent.
Dusit Poll surveyed more than 2,300 Thais last week. The findings say Move Forward’s Pita Limjaroenrat (54.5%) is more popular than Srettha (43.8%).
It’s a rating that can make both men ambivalent. Pita might have expected more and Srettha might consider himself lucky because it could have been worse.
To add to that, Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra (25.6%) is more popular than Move Forward leader Chaithawat Tulathon (20.6%).
At 30.5%, Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul is above both Paetongtarn and Chaithawat. If the interior minister and deputy prime minister has been flying under the radar, the radar will soon start to make noises.
He can arguably be the happiest man in the aftermath of the release of the latest Dusit Poll findings.
Dusit Poll says Thais feel that everything political more or less has been below their expectations, namely the opposition’s performance, the prime minister’s performance, the administration’s overall performance, political stability, how politicians behave, the general economy, the justice system, unemployment and the tackling of narcotic drugs and dark powers.
Daily updates of local and global events by Tulsathit Taptim
